PALM COAST − Despite attracting its first residents only 51 years ago, Palm Coast has edged past Deltona to become the most populous city in the Volusia-Flagler region, according to University of Florida researchers.
And it's going to get bigger. A lot bigger. Palm Coast may be a top 20 city in the state by 2050, a projection embraced by Mayor David Alfin.
That explosion in growth shows no sign of slowing as the Legislature in its 2023-2024 budget, expected to be approved soon, has set aside at least $54 million for the city, according to state Rep. Tom Leek, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.
That includes money for several projects, including $25 million to extend Matanzas Woods Parkway west into largely vacant land that's primed for development.
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No longer a 'pine-covered swamp'
The city is the largest in the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area, according to data from the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The UF figures reflect a trend showing Palm Coast and Flagler County consistently growing at a fasterclip than Deltona and Volusia County.
The U.S. Census Bureau has not yet released its 2022 estimates at a city level.
With 96,504 residents, Palm Coast is now the 26th-largest city in Florida. It's a far cry from 1970, when corporate giant International Telephone & Telegraph, or ITT, announced it would be developing huge tracts of pine forests, cattle ranches, and potato farms in a rural county located between historic St. Augustine and the sunshine and auto-racing mecca Daytona Beach.
Alfin, the city's mayor since 2021, intends to capitalize on Palm Coast's population feat.
“I’ll spare no amount of energy to make sure everybody knows it. It’s good for the community," he said.
More than that, though, Alfin is stoked about what appears to be another growth surge. The first homes are being built in new developments west of U.S. 1, including Sawmill Branch near Matanzas Woods Parkway, and Reverie, a couple of miles to the south.
Those subdivisions are part of the larger Palm Coast Park development of regional impact, or DRI, which is undergoing an amendment expanding its right to build housing units.
The city's Planning and Land Development Regulation Board on April 19 approved a plan to allow Palm Coast Park − a swath of 4,677 acres, or more than 7 square miles − to construct 6,454 dwelling units, up from 3,600 when the development was first approved in 2004.
Alfin said that's only a part of an even larger future-growth exercise the city is undertaking: plotting out the buildout of the city's land.
“We’re master-planning a doubling of the geographic footprint of the city, 40,000 acres," Alfin said. “We call it the frontier project or initiative. There is no other swath of land this size that exists on the east side of Florida that can be master-planned."
The goal is to build a sustainable community with "the highest quality of life in this region, in Florida, that is the model for the region and state," said Alfin, a Realtor who moved to Palm Coast in 2012.
University of Florida researchers peg Flagler's growth rate at 48% by 2050. Palm Coast represents 78% of Flagler County's population, so if that proportion remains the same, the city's population figures to top 142,000 by then.
Other cities will grow, too. This is Florida, after all. But that rate of growth could push Palm Coast into the top 20 in population. At least nine cities just ahead of Palm Coast − including Boca Raton, Clearwater, and Palm Bay − are in counties that are expected to grow at much slower rates.
What attracts people to Palm Coast?
A new City Council member, Theresa Carli Pontieri, 38, said she moved to Palm Coast in 2015, shortly after graduating from law school. With some of her work stretching north to Jacksonville, and her husband employed as an Osceola County firefighter, Palm Coast was a good location to settle. Plus, she has an aunt and cousins living in the city.
“The No. 1 thing, other than having family here, was the affordability. I was pretty fresh out of law school when I moved here,” Pontieri said. “I couldn’t afford a house in St. Johns County.”
Palm Coast offered a chance to be close to the beach and other amenities, such as walking trails and parks, she said.
“Where we live is absolutely beautiful," she said.
Pontieri enjoys walking her three dogs, Bacon, Bailey and Max, to Princess Place Preserve, a state park, where they can “roll around in the mud and dirt.”
She said Palm Coast offers natural resources, walking on both the beach and the sidewalk along State Road A1A, as well as the European Village, a commercial development consisting of restaurants, bars, and boutiques.
“It’s the feel of a close-knit community,” Pontieri said.
Pursuing an economic niche for Palm Coast
According to a University of Florida report, about 29% of Flagler County’s population was age 65 and older in 2021. That was up from 24.5% in 2010.
Alfin is concerned about that.
“We’re older than we were and we need to reverse that trend," the mayor said. "I love the older population and the retirees, but any city that’s out of balance in that category is going to suffer sustainability."
The city needs to also attract young residents, and Alfin believes Palm Coast is onto something that might fill the bill.
He believes a combination of hospitals and universities – educating and training future medical professionals – might be a niche with which Palm Coast can capitalize on. Jacksonville University, the University of North Florida, and Daytona State College all have started training programs for nurses and other medical professionals in Palm Coast.
“We are building our brand as a regional destination for healthcare services training and associated medical technical skills," Alfin said. "We need to attract a younger resident for the future. That’s why this health care training service model works for us, to balance our future."
Keep options open
Pontieri, who calls herself a data-driven decision-maker, said she is awaiting more information from feasibility studies before fully committing to the medical-education concept fully.
“I would love to see higher education and medicine in Palm Coast, but I want to make sure we don’t have blinders on, make sure if we have other options we keep them open," she said, noting the city's I-95 corridor and access to rail could also be attractive to other industries.
Either way, it's crucial the city pursue a balance of commercial and residential development, she said.
She seeks to diversify the city's tax base and work with the economic development department to bring in light industrial, and commercial development. She also wants to make sure the infrastructure is in place "before we allow the influx of homes we are anticipating."
Friends in high places
It helps that the city has strong connections with the Florida lawmakers.
The potential $54 million funding comes during a year when Rep. Paul Renner, R-Palm Coast, is serving as House Speaker. The money must first pass expected votes in the House and Senate, and then survive the veto pen of Gov. Ron DeSantis, who, while serving as a congressman for the Volusia-Flagler region, maintained a residence in Palm Coast briefly.
Leek, an Ormond Beach Republican, is planning to run for the state Senate seat that includes Flagler County at the center of its district.
Other projects included in the $54 million include:
- $550,000 for the redesign of Old Kings Road to include more than 4 miles of pedestrian/bicycle path to improve safety and "harden the west side of Palm Coast to hurricane flooding."
- $18.4 million for the widening of a 1.4-mile stretch of Old Kings Road, going from 2 to 4 lanes between Kings Way to Farnum Lane. This will also include sidewalks and streetlights for safety, landscaping, and water quality improvements.
- $2.5 million to help with relocating and rebuilding Palm Coast Fire Station 22.
- $2.5 million to build a new Palm Coast fire station, to be No. 26.
Alfin hopes Palm Coast residents understand the reason for his optimism.
“We’re literally at the doorstep of an opportunity that doesn’t exist anywhere else in the state of Florida. This is a really special moment for us," he said. "Whatever we do, the legacy is we should be a model for the state that others can follow.”
