We’ve got a teeny-tiny four-game featured slate tonight in MLB, with things getting underway in Toronto just past 7:00 p.m. ET. Who are the key names to focus on and how can you achieve some differentiation on a slate so small?
I have answers! Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $8,600 - It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to deduce that Jack Flaherty ($9,800) will be popular on Thursday night. So, let’s zag with Rodon. The lefty has suffered through back-to-back underwhelming starts, yet for the season as a whole, Rodon owns a 3.86 ERA. He’s also struck out exactly a batter per inning across his last 11 outings, signalling some decent upside in a DFS setting. However, the main draw with the veteran is matchup. The Blue Jays have been putrid against southpaws in 2024, entering this evening’s action ranking dead-last within the split among AL teams in ISO (.103). Toronto’s .282 wOBA versus left-handers sits 27th. Woof.
INFIELD
Stud
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians, $6,300 - It’s never a bad night to utilize Witt. The shortstop comes into this evening’s tilt with Cleveland sitting third in baseball in batting average (.311), fourth in stolen bases (21) and sixth in expected wOBA (.409). What more could you want from a player? Witt Jr. should be in an advantageous spot on Thursday in a matchup with Ben Lively ($8,300), as the RHP has some pretty significant reverse splits. To wit, Lively’s held opposing LHBs below the Mendoza Line (.193), yet RHBs have managed to slug .472 off the 32-year-old.
Stud
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees, $4,500 - If you’re fading the aforementioned Rodon on this slate, you need to invest in Guerrero. The All-Star is far too cheap for his recent results. In fact, since the beginning of May, Guerrero is slashing .324/.395/.489 with a 154 wRC+ in 210 plate appearances. As per usual, Guerrero’s advanced stats are also insane, with the infielder ranking in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity (94.9) and the 96th percentile in expected wOBA (.392).
Value
Daniel Schneemann, Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, $3,100 - After tearing the cover off the baseball at Triple-A for two months, Schneemann got the call up the majors. Spoiler alert: He’s continued to tear the cover off the baseball. It’s a small sample, but in his 58 plate appearances with the Guardians, Schneemann’s managed a .240 ISO and a 156 wRC+, all while playing at nearly every position on the field. Tonight, the rookie will draw an opposite-hand matchup with Michael Wacha ($7,000), who has surrendered 1.30 home runs per nine to LHBs this season.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, $5,500 - You know how some players need some time to get back to game speed following a length stay on the IL? Not Kwan. In the 20 games he’s played since returning from injury, Kwan is slashing .418/.483/.646 with a 223 wRC+. Somehow, it’s the slugging percentage that stands out. Kwan has hit three long balls since June 19 and he’s already set a new career-high in home runs for the season as a whole. His new combination of elite average and a touch of power is super tantalizing in fantasy.
Stud
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, $5,200 - Greene is in the midst of a breakout campaign and, while he still really can’t hit left-handed pitching, he’s absolutely crushing righties. In 256 plate appearances within the split in 2024, Greene sports a .244 ISO, a .912 OPS and a 156 wRC+. The former top prospect has also been red-hot in June, hitting .306 with a 174 wRC+ in the month. Davis Daniel ($5,500) possesses a 5.33 ERA in Triple-A. He’ll be making his first-career MLB start this evening. He’d be wise to tread carefully with Greene.
Value
Matt Vierling, Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, $3,900 - I’d always considered Vierling to be a platoon bat, but the outfielder has cemented himself as the Tigers’ every day leadoff man. He’s also simply been at his best in right-on-right matchups in 2024. To wit, Vierling owns an impressive .240 ISO within the split, compared to a modest .082 ISO against LHPs. With the inexperienced Daniel on the mound for the Angels, you might as well stack some Detroit bats — especially if they’re this cheap.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
