Fantasy baseball advice for Tuesday: Look to Lively (2024)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Look to Lively

As a general rule, fantasy managers like to target big arms with plenty of strikeout upside. There's obviously nothing wrong with that, but this mindset can cause other hurlers who lack elite swing-and-miss stuff to fly under the radar. That's been the case with the Guardians Ben Lively, who is rostered in only 24% of ESPN leagues despite holding a strong 3.42 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 19 starts.

Lively has been a picture of consistency this season. He has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 17 of 19 starts in 2024. In 14 of those, the righty allowed two or fewer runs. And he's not just getting by with an easy schedule. Lively limited the Baltimore Orioles (third-most runs in MLB) to just two earned runs over six frames in his last outing, and he pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Philadelphia Phillies (seventh-most runs) in the outing before that.

The Arizona Diamondbacks present a tough test for Lively on Tuesday, sporting one of the game's top offenses, but the right-hander remains a solid streaming option. Even without big velocity or high strikeout numbers (7.7 K/9 this year), he's proven he can hold his own regardless of the matchup.

What you may have missed on Monday

By Todd Zola

• Arizona Diamondbacks C Gabriel Moreno strained his left groin beating out an infield single in the second inning of last night's game. He was immediately removed and replaced by backup Jose Herrera. The extent of the injury is still unclear, though Moreno will almost assuredly require a stint on the IL. Herrera will take over main catching duties with his backup likely coming up from Triple-A Reno.

• Minnesota Twins SS Brooks Lee has missed the last two contests due to a sore shoulder. However, manager Rocco Baldelli indicated Lee could have played last night, so he very well may be back as soon as today. Willi Castro has filled in at shortstop with Austin Martin covering second base. Regular SS Carlos Correa is reportedly close to embarking on a rehab stint as he recovers from plantar fasciitis.

• Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora indicated that OF Tyler O'Neill will remain sidelined today but could return from his stomach virus in time for tomorrow's finale on the road against the Kansas City Royals. Rob Refsnyder filled in on Sunday with 2B Nick Sogard claiming O'Neill's lineup spot yesterday (pushing Ceddanne Rafaela to the outfield).

• After missing Sunday's affair, Chicago Cubs OF Ian Happ was back in action last night, batting leadoff. However, OF Seiya Suzuki missed the game due to a stiff neck. Manager Craig Counsell doesn't believe the injury is serious, indicating he expects Suzuki to be back in action today.

• Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman returned to the lineup last night. He missed seven games while taking time away from the team to deal with a family matter. Freeman had missed a total of seven games over the prior three seasons combined. Cavan Biggio filled in at first base in Freeman's absence, then was designated for assignment following Freeman's return.

Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

• Cincinnati lefty Nick Lodolo (rostered in 46% of ESPN leagues) was hammered by the Tampa Bay Rays for eight runs in 5 2/3 frames in his last outing, but he's in a great bounce-back spot on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have the worst offense in the majors against left-handed pitching this season, sporting a .273 wOBA and a 74 wRC+. Marlins Park is also a huge downgrade for offense compared to Great American Ballpark, especially for homers. Prior to his blowup outing, Lodolo held a 3.51 ERA over his previous 10 starts, and he should get back on track here.

• After missing the first four months of the season due to shoulder issues, Eduardo Rodriguez (29%) is finally set to make his 2024 debut for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The lefty figures to be on a strict pitch count when he faces the Cleveland Guardians. He did not go out on a rehab assignment and pitched only four innings in a simulated game on Wednesday. In other words, don't consider him a streaming option for this start, though he is an arm that could potentially help you down the stretch. Rodriguez's health remains a question, but this is a guy who posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 26 starts in 2023.

• Another arm set to make his season debut, Texas' Tyler Mahle (2%) will take the mound on Tuesday against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. He has been working his way back from Tommy John surgery that he underwent in April 2023. Mahle made six rehab starts and worked up to 74 pitches in his most recent outing. The right-hander wouldn't be the first pitcher to struggle following elbow surgery, so it's best to take a wait-and-see approach against a tough Astros lineup. That said, he's worth monitoring over his first few starts back to determine if there's any value to be had the rest of the way.

• Following the Los Angeles Angels' deadline trades that sent relievers Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia to Philadelphia and Boston, respectively, Hunter Strickland nailed down the team's first save opportunity last Tuesday. However, 23-year-old flamethrower Ben Joyce (6%) got the call on Saturday against the New York Mets and recorded the final four outs to secure his first big league save, hitting 104.7 mph on the gun on his final pitch of the night. It remains to be seen whether Joyce will get the majority of save chances the rest of the way, but he should be scooped up if you need saves.

• Betting tip of the day: Take under 6.5 strikeouts (-120) for Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore on Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants. Gore has been struggling of late, holding a 7.84 ERA over his last seven starts, which has made it hard for him to pitch deep into games and rack up the K's. And he won't get any relief against the Giants, who sport a 119 wRC+ versus southpaws this year (fourth-best in MLB). Gore has fallen short of seven strikeouts in six of his last seven turns.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• J.D. Martinez (NYM, DH -- 14%) at Kyle Freeland

• Mark Vientos (NYM, 3B -- 22%) at Freeland

• Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 7%) vs. Luis Severino

• Francisco Alvarez (NYM, C -- 38%) at Freeland

• Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 36%) vs. Severino

• Jorge Soler (ATL, RF -- 50%) vs. Colin Rea

• Tyrone Taylor (NYM, RF -- 0%) at Freeland

• Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF -- 46%) vs. Davis Daniel

• Harrison Bader (NYM, CF -- 3%) at Freeland

• JJ Bleday (OAK, LF -- 15%) vs. Jonathan Cannon

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

• Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 52%) vs. Pablo Lopez

• Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 77%) vs. Lopez

• Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 78%) vs. Lopez

• Isaac Paredes (CHC, 3B -- 87%) vs. Lopez

• Nico ho*rner (CHC, 2B -- 85%) vs. Lopez

• Cody Bellinger (CHC, CF -- 94%) vs. Lopez

• Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF -- 87%) vs. Framber Valdez

• Royce Lewis (MIN, 3B -- 84%) at Shota Imanaga

• Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 51%) at Tyler Mahle

• Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 79%) vs. Daniel

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

• New York Mets at Freeland

• New York Yankees vs. Daniel

• Colorado Rockies vs. Severino